This Rugby World Cup will be won by the team who performs with the best Tactical Execution, applies the right amount of Passion when it counts and has the best Match Fitness to convert the previous attributes into vital wins.
Tactical Execution
From what we've seen I think it's fair to say that the All Blacks and South Africans lead in this department but every team in the quarter finals has shown their ability to get up against good opposition, if only for brief moments, over the last six months.
There's no doubt that once again, the All Blacks have the best running game but previous World Cups have proven that you can't always rely on tries and that earning penalties and drop goal attempts in the last quarter do pay off. I just hope they've worked on this 'Plan B' option.
The Element of Surprise
If any team have been holding on to a secret strategy which they can execute well then it could lead to a major upset. We know the South Africans are going to turn to the drop goal in the big games and that Australia can play very smart when it counts. I'm just glad they're playing each other before the All Blacks.
Passion
The amount of heart each team puts into their play-offs campaign will be unquestioned. From the 'Backs to the Wall' circumstances of the underdogs in the Northern Hemisphere to the 'Defending Champions' status of South Africa and the well documented 'Favourites', 'Chokers', 'Home Nation Pressure' labels which are cast on the All Blacks. I doubt we'll see one team out passion another unless a radical tactical strategy is employed, effectively psyching out it's opposition.
Passion could enable a less skillful team to outperform a favourite but only if match fitness allows it.
Match Fitness
This comes down to pre-tournament fitness, rotation policy, depth on the bench and the toll of previous performances. Though it was prevalent in the bottom 12 teams, I don't recall seeing any of the top 8 fading in the final 15mins so far this tournament.
Looking at the quarter finals, on the other hand, the only team which does not have a hard road into the semi finals is the All Blacks. This could have added to thier undoing in previous World Cups where players were kept relatively fresh at the expense of competition familiarity which is required to perform at the highest level in sudden death sport.
Still, fatigue does carry from week to week and for those who have been asked to play big games three weekends in a row, maintaining Passion for 80minutes could become too big an ask.
South Africa, England and France have had very hard final pool games where as the All Blacks, Australia, Ireland and Wales got their hardest pool matches out of the way earlier in the tournament. I'm expecting this to give Australia the edge over South Africa on Sunday.
Player Injuries
There have been major injuries in all the top teams so depth has become a major factor in this tournament. If someone told me Dan Carter would not survive the group stages three months ago I'd say we've got no chance but because there are so many injuries in other teams and the rest of the squad is so strong, I'm still backing Black...
My Picks for the Quarter Finals
- Wales to beat Ireland based on Tactical Execution and a very subtle difference in Match Fitness.
- France to beat England based on Passion, helped by their loss to Tonga.
- Australia to beat South Africa based on Match Fitness.
- NZ to beat Argentina based on Match Fitness and Tactical Execution. I'm hoping Eden Park and the home support will nullify the Argentinian Passion...Please do not mention the word 'Complacency'!!
Go the All Blacks!!!
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